Can I test a staking plan ?

Question

I would like to test my own past selections on a staking plan ,Can this be done? What staking plans are available? looked at The Staking Machine but seems too complated.

Answer 1

It's not in-built.

 

You can obviously use the Smartform database as the basis for making selections (live and historic) but you'd have to programme the logic of any staking plan yourself, either in SQL or elsewhere.

 

However (and apologies if I'm patronising you) I'd urge caution in investing too much time or effort in developing a staking plan as there's massive scope for self-delusion through over-fitting. I've fallen into this trap myself before - faffing about with staking rules applied to historical data to make a 'borderline' system apparently profitable. Fancy staking plans will never turn a sow's ear into a silk purse in practice, and such tweaks as I've made to my (very simple) staking rules have never improved my real-life results - my strong advice is therefore to keep it simple

Comments

I have recently developed a staking plan based on dutching. I've back tested it against all events in 2015 and 2016 (~20k) with an 80% hit rate - which I think I can improve on.
The problem I have is I work full time so deploying it is impossible right now.
Testing is key here and I can't stress that enough, I had situations where the first 100 races was smashing it but then it would go right down the tubes so you need to test it against as much data as possible, I tested mine against 20k historical races over 2 years. Build, test, tune - rinse and repeat.