RE: Handicap Ratings

Question

I only back in good quality handicaps NH or Flat, I try and find the optimum Racing Post Master Rating I think the horse is capable of running to in todays race. Sometimes the only rating the horse has achieved is on the AW or in non handicap races, which don’t seem to work out the same as if the rating had come from a handicap run on turf, I would value your opinion on this subject.
Kind regards
Richard Dymond

Answer 1

Hi, This isnt quite what you are asking but in the same sphere. I've been working for sometime with the idea of backing horses who have in the past achieved what they are being asked to do today. Ie horses who have prev C and D form runnig today off and equal or lower offical rating .

The problem I have found is that often in the top level hcaps the winner is a progressive horse who is achieving more than he has previously done. Hard to find on numbers but often found by the ITK market shapers!  Little value in chasing this IMO.

Ive tried to concentrate on the slightly lower level hcaps where (for instance on the flat its 4yo+) horses who have had a few ups and downs and have are now on a down but showing signs of a resurgence.

With some (ok maybe alot of ;) ) help from Colin I have cobbled together some SQLs to give me this info each day and whilst Im too lazy to backtest it, I do seem to be at least filtering out many non winners , if not identifying all the winners!