Forecast odds [closed]

0 votes


One thing I've noticed with historic_runners_beta is that the forecast odds are usually considerably higher than the market odds (or starting price) when daily_runners_beta is published and available.  When I run my simulation, I keep a cash PnL based off this forecast_odds field, but it means the PnL, in the majority of cases, is considerably higher than real life which has been proven over the last month or so of actual betting.

Could someone please explain how this field is sourced?  Is there a way to add a field to the historic_runners_beta table which reflects something more akin to the market odds or starting price?  My analysis does take into consideration the odds but given I'm modelling my algorithm on historic data, it would be good if the historic data had as close to starting price at race time as possible.

I just saw the oddsline facility on Betwise.  This may help but I'll need to do some further investigation into that.  A quick look reveals that I'm not going to find starting price in there.


closed with the note: Sorry, I just noticed that historic_runners_beta does actually have a starting_price field!  Specsavers, where are you?
asked Oct 17, 2023 in Smartform by maddisor Novice (410 points)
closed Oct 17, 2023 by maddisor