Going different in tables

0 votes
Hi. Daily table have advanced_going and Historic have going, there are races (most of them) with different going in historic and advanced_going in daily tables for the same race. How can I know at the current day what's the real going for the race?
asked Nov 2, 2016 by johnny Novice (230 points)

1 Answer

+1 vote
The advanced going in the Daily table is the going reported by the course the day before the race.

The going in the Historic table is the actual going the race was run on.

These two going descriptions can vary due to drying ground or rainfall on the day of the race.

Clearly the Historic data is the more accurate for past analysis, but if you want to use going information predictively to inform live betting decisions you have to use to Daily data as that all that's available for races yet to happen.
answered Nov 26, 2016 by SlightReturn Listed class (2,850 points)
So what's the best source for daily goings at the moment race will start, or a few hours before? Is the timeform accurate?
I don't know, and have never looked into this, but I'd be surprised if any one source is better or worse than any other. This is because they will all have the same single source of on-the-ground information which is the Clerk of the Course and he (or she) produces advance going reports which say the same thing to everybody.

The issue is not the source of the information, but the time at which it's obtained, relative to the start time of the race. Clearly, the closer you get to the race start time, the more accurate the going report is likely to be.

The daily_races table in Smartform basically reflects the position the afternoon before the race (it's taken from Press Association data which is what most daily newspapers - printed overnight - use for their racecards). Drying ground or rainfall can and do alter things before the race starts, so going reports taken - say - half an hour before post time are going to be more accurate overall.

But the Smartform database doesn't include real-time going updates (I'm not aware of any databases that do although I may be wrong). So if you are looking to use a going description programmatically in a real betting decision, you'll either need to settle for the advance, day-before-racing description in the daily_races table, or enter data manually on the day of racing.
Yes, without updating going before post time I dont see any use of going at all. I have compared last races's historic going and daily advanced going and there are many races with different one. Another question: Can going be different for different races in the same meeting?
Yes - the official going can be changed part way through a meeting. Again, this is usually due to ongoing rainfall or quickly drying ground.
Also, you say that you don't see any use of [advance] going at all. But it's a fair guide.

There's a risk of thinking that the various official going categories (basically six, ranging from Firm to Heavy) are discrete, individual categories that have nothing to do with each other. But in reality they are points on a continuum.

For example, suppose the going is Good to Firm the day before racing. A few hours of steady rain overnight is not suddenly going to turn it Heavy. It'll be Good, maybe Good to Soft in places at worst. Equally, Soft ground is not suddenly going to turn Firm given a few hours sunshine on the morning of the meeting. The advance going is not 100% accurate but it's far from useless in predicting the ground that the race will be run on.

I produce my own speed ratings. The table below shows the lower and upper ranges (each 1 standard deviation from the mean) of the difference between the race winner's time and my standard race times, for each of the various going categories.

Jumps    Firm    -0.05    8.53
Jumps    G/F    2.83    9.69
Jumps    Good    3.75    11.17
Jumps    G/S    5.48    13.12
Jumps    Soft    7.86    16.24
Jumps    Heavy    10.29    19.77
Flat    All-weather    0.73    2.73
Flat    Firm    -0.91    2.19
Flat    G/F    -0.43    2.51
Flat    Good    0.07    4.11
Flat    G/S    1.85    6.23
Flat    Soft    3.45    9.27
Flat    Heavy    5.81    13.53

This illustrates the 'continuum' point, plus the fact that there's real overlap between the going descriptions in terms of their impact on race times (albeit recognising that many other factors influence these as well).

Hope this helps
Should have added ... figures above are on a seconds-per-mile basis.
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